A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
